Prospects for Moscow-Libya Cooperation?

Egypt benefits from the chaos in Libya in that it lets Cairo drive opponents of the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi regime, mostly Muslim Brotherhood members, into exile in Cyrenaica. According to the above source, apparently just about the only country with a vested interest in a stronger Libyan state is Algeria, and a lot of hope is placed on its role in stabilizing the situation.

In regard to France, the Libyan interlocutor’s comments resonate with Russian strategic analysts, some of whom concur with his suggestions. However, others are reluctant to attribute France’s policy vis-a-vis Libya solely to its interest in the Fezzan uranium.

However, to the extent these analysts agree on something, it is the opinion that Paris is largely responsible for the chaos in Libya, since France played a major role in destroying Libyan statehood and yet it has been unable to meaningfully assist the Libyans in building a new state.

Regarding Egypt, however, Russian analysts take a different stance and believe that Cairo might play a highly positive role in stabilizing the situation, and that close cooperation between Egypt and Algeria in the matter could make this alternative much more realistic. Similarities between the two nations’ regimes might serve as a factor facilitating their close interactions toward a Libyan settlement.

Meanwhile, their good relationships with Moscow might encourage Russians to favor greater involvement in the Libyan peacemaking process. By the way, certain high-ranking Libyan representatives who have approached Russians insisted that Moscow should support the highly professional Libyan officer corps that has been pushed aside, given that a proportion of Libyan officers had studied in Russia and view Russia in favorable terms. Ostensibly, that force could play a decisive role in stabilizing the situation across the nation.

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