According to the source, while the Thani government effectively has no control over most of the nation save for Tobruk and a portion of Benghazi, the Islamist government of Omar al-Hasi, representing the GNC, openly relies on Libya Dawn militias and lets them do as they please in Tripolitania. Meanwhile, this internecine war might well bring about the nation’s final dismemberment and demise of the Libyan state.
Far from everyone in Russia shares these pessimistic views of Libya’s future. Podtserob noted two other possibilities: One involves the nation’s division along cease-fire lines, the way it happened in China, Korea, Vietnam and Cyprus in relevant periods.
The second, most optimistic scenario contemplates a political settlement whereby a coalition government could be established followed by a move toward a federal system. However, the recent postponement of the conflicting parties’ talks, originally scheduled for Jan. 5 under the UN aegis, suggests that the process of potential reconciliation would be exceedingly difficult. However, a number of Russian analysts, who foresee an eventual defeat for the Islamists, disagree with Podtserob.
In fact, under the condition of anonymity, a Libyan representative gave Al-Monitor a highly critical assessment of actions taken by a number of regional and global powers vis-a-vis Libya. He believes that some of them continue to manipulate the differences among various groups and to set them against one another.
Thus, France is working to establish control over Fezzan to take possession of local uranium reserves the French need (ostensibly, Paris had been driven by the same motive in Mali). Indeed, these arguments resonate with many Russian analysts. To Qatar, Libya’s disintegration offers a stronger hand in the European market and a simultaneous opportunity to influence the entire region using Islamist groups entrenched in the country.