Archive | Weekly Security Update

Weekly Security Update

Overview Campaigning for Libya’s first elections in four decades is underway ahead of the 7 July polls.  While it remains difficult to predict the final outcome of the elections, voting will likely be influenced by tribal and regional affiliations.  The Muslim Brotherhood’s recent success in Egypt will also likely bolster their Libyan affiliates.  On 26 […]

Weekly Security Update

Projections Instability may increase throughout the country over the coming weeks, as the authorities continue to struggle to enforce law and order, particularly in rural areas and the south of the country. With elections approaching, the interim regime will be keen to demonstrate it has made some security gains and progress on the integration of […]

Weekly Security Review

Projections There is the risk of a further deterioration in security in Libya over the coming weeks and months. It is now clear that some threat groups do exist, although they lack the capacity to carry out major attacks. There is therefore an ongoing risk of further low level violence in major cities that could […]

Weekly Security Review

Projections The security situation in Tripoli will remain largely the same, although there is a risk of a slight deterioration in the lead up to parliamentary elections. Demonstrations are likely, with the potential for low-level violence, particularly if the elections are cancelled. Projections for the security environment in Benghazi are similar, although there are a […]

Weekly Security Review

 Projections Further violent incidents in Tripoli are expected, although the city will remain largely stable overall. As elections near there is likely to be a surge in the number of political demonstrations throughout the country, but mainly in major cities. Protests will focus on central squares, government buildings and hotels housing foreign media. Benghazi will […]

Weekly Security Review

Projections Tripoli will remain calm, although as elections approach in the coming weeks there will be an increased risk of political demonstration in central areas of the city, and around government buildings and major hotels housing foreign media, who are likely to return in time for the polls. Benghazi will also remain calm overall, but […]

Weekly Security Review

Projections Reports of a recent vote of no confidence in the government of Abdurrahim al-Keib are likely to increase political uncertainty in the run up to elections. The reports may prove to be premature, although the evident cracks between the government and NTC are causing increased concern over political stability in the run up to […]

Weekly Security Review

Projections The security situation in Tripoli will remain positive, although there is an ongoing risk of clashes between rival militia groups and attacks by groups and individuals hostile to the NTC and seeking to disrupt the transition process. Following the handover of Tripoli International Airport to the central authorities the NTC will likely seek to […]