Meanwhile, there is an apparent discrepancy in interpreting the core of the Libyan conflict, which is both more complex and easier to understand than the Syrian one. On one hand, weak or absent Libyan state institutions derail progress toward a settlement. On the other hand, the approach of numerous parties to the conflict is mainly opportunistic. With the exception of most radical Islamist groups, made up mainly of foreigners, each party is well aware that the conflict is not existential, which is conducive to a compromise.
Russian expert discourse suggests treating all players in the Libyan political space as equal competitors. Military power, international status, political ideology or religious identity are just resources in their struggle for power. From this perspective, the Misrata Brigades are viewed as equal to Sarraj’s government, which, in its turn, has the same status as the Libyan National Army. All these parties should engage in the political process, which requires stable, confidential relations of the intermediaries with each of them.
Meanwhile, developments in recent weeks suggest an emerging rapprochement between Moscow and other external players, facilitated largely by a clearer American stance.
Russian experts point to the increasing Russian-Italian cooperation in the Libyan matter, which could theoretically be supplemented by a Russian-French track. However, the latter is unlikely to take shape until the new French president is settled and with the recent appointment of a new special envoy to Libya.
Moscow attaches immense importance to cooperation with Europe and seems eager to use a potential Libyan settlement in much the same way it used the situation in Syria to engage in political dialogue with Washington. Southern European countries show a more sensitive appreciation of the Libyan conflict than the United States has regarding Syria. Along with the continued advance of political forces that have little or no bias against Russia — take Italy’s populist Five Star movement, for instance — the Libyan situation offers good prospects for dialogue.